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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.